US Gulf Coast and Qatar drive future LNG supply growth
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry is entering a decisive phase, with US Gulf Coast projects expected to dominate final investment decisions (FIDs) in 2025, and Qatar pressing ahead with North Field expansions
According to a new Welligence report, released via ADIPEC, the two regions are set to account for around half of global LNG supply by 2030.
The US Gulf Coast is at the centre of this year’s LNG expansion. Three major projects, Woodside Energy’s Louisiana LNG, Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi Midscale Trains, and Venture Global’s CP2 LNG, have already reached FID in 2025.
Additional sanctions are expected before year-end, including those related to Sempra Energy’s Port Arthur LNG Phase 2. The report notes that the US continues to benefit from abundant shale gas resources, established infrastructure, and strong buyer appetite for long-term offtake agreements.
Qatar is solidifying its position through continued investment in its giant North Field project. Expansions there will ensure the country maintains a central role in global supply, securing long-term contracts with Asian and European buyers. By 2030, Welligence predicts that the US and Qatar, together, will supply nearly 50% of the global LNG.
Other nations are positioning themselves to capture future market share through expansions and restarts; for example, projects in Canada and Papua New Guinea are expected to move forward around 2026. Shell’s LNG Canada Phase 2 and TotalEnergies’ Papua LNG are both advancing towards FID.
In Indonesia, Eni’s Geng North development in the Kutei Basin is nearing sanction, while in Australia, Woodside is planning to repurpose Browse gas via floating production units, paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Alaska is working to revive its LNG ambitions, though high pipeline capital costs remain an issue despite the signing of offtake agreements. In Argentina, Southern Energy’s 5.95 MMtpa FLNG project reached FID earlier this year, with Shell and Eni exploring Phase 2 and 3 developments that could add 22 MMtpa combined.
By 2029, as much as 100 million tonnes per annum of additional LNG capacity could be sanctioned outside the US and Qatar. However, rising construction costs, stricter climate scrutiny, and long project lead times mean that only the most competitive proposals are likely to reach FID.
For buyers in Asia and Europe, where LNG demand is rising amid coal phase-outs and concerns over energy security, these decisions will determine supply stability well into the 2030s.
To read the report, visit: LNG’s final investment decision race heats up: Welligence report
