EU gas ban opens strategic export opportunity for Africa
With the European Union formalizing a ban on Russian LNG and gas imports from 2026 and 2027, Africa is positioned to leverage geopolitics to advance its energy development
The Council of the European Union (EU) and the European Parliament signed a provisional agreement in December 2025 to phase out Russian gas imports. The agreement defines a full prohibition on LNG and pipeline gas from 2026 and 2027, respectively, and aims to diversify imports and strengthen security of supply.
For African gas producers, this decision is an opportunity to attract investment and prioritise domestic energy needs.
Strategic openings
The EU’s decision to introduce a legally binding prohibition on Russian gas imports is a pillar of the bloc’s REPowerEU roadmap, launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and aimed at safeguarding energy supply.
Under the provisional agreement, short-term contracts concluded before June 2025 will expire in 2026, while long-term LNG contracts will be prohibited from January 2027.
Long-term pipeline gas contracts will end by September or November 2027, contingent on meeting storage targets. Amendments to existing contracts will be restricted and cannot increase volumes.
The regulation enables EU member states to submit national diversification plans outlining how they intend to replace Russian supplies, while reinforcing European Commission oversight.
A parallel legislative proposal to phase out Russian oil imports is expected by the end of 2027. While Russian oil accounts for less than 3% of EU imports, gas still accounts for around 13%, worth over €15 billion annually, and poses supply and security risks.
Europe is seeking new, reliable suppliers capable of providing long-term volumes under transparent, rules-based frameworks, allowing Africa to position itself to meet the demands on its own terms.
Africa's potential
North Africa has established export infrastructure, with Algeria, Egypt, and Libya accounting for two-thirds of the continent’s output. Production is set to expand into the 2030s, but North Africa’s share is expected to fall below 40% by 2035 as other regional producers emerge.
This is a strategic advantage for Europe. West and East African LNG producers sit on the Atlantic and Indian Ocean trade routes, allowing them to act as swing suppliers. This enables producers to respond to price signals in Europe and Asia and take advantage of spot-market fluctuations, providing resilience during global supply disruptions.
Africa also holds an estimated 620 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven gas reserves. The Rovuma Basin off Tanzania and Mozambique contains 129tcf, and Nigeria’s Niger Delta holds 113tcf
Much of the potential is underdeveloped, but momentum is building. In 2025, the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project in Mauritania and Senegal started up, along with Congo LNG Phase 2 and the resumption of Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG.
Balancing demand with african priorities
European demand is growing, offering Africa the opportunity to become a preferred global supplier while ensuring investment serves the continent’s development needs. With over 600 million people lacking electricity and 900 million without clean cooking solutions, it is important to move beyond historical contractual models rooted in extraction.
By 2050, African gas By 2050, African gas is predicted to rise by 60%, reaffirming the need to design contracts that support long-term economic growth instead of short-term export gains.ready gaining traction: integrating domestic market obligations into LNG projects. The GTA project is a clear example. Developed as a cross-border LNG hub for Mauritania and Senegal, the project reserves 35 million standard cubic feet a day of its output for domestic use in each country, supporting power generation and industrial development as well as exports to global markets.
Instead of viewing exports and domestic consumption as competing priorities, this framework links them directly, so production and exports grow alongside gas availability for local markets.
NJ Ayuk, executive chairman of the African Energy Chamber, said, “By modernising contractual structures and embedding development considerations into gas investments, African producers can ensure that rising global demand translates into accelerated progress at home. Africa’s gas resources must be developed in a way that serves Africans first, powering homes, driving industrialisation, and creating jobs, while responsibly supplying the world.”
