A new analysis from DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook programme finds that cooling will account for 13% of global electricity demand by 2035 as rising incomes, expanding floor space, and higher temperatures drive growth in air-conditioning
Published ahead of COP31, the findings highlight the growing challenge of expanding access to cooling while simultaneously decarbonising the electricity system.
DNV’s analysis, Burning to cool: COP31 has a cooling challenge, found that electricity demand for cooling will increase by over 60% over the next decade. By 2035, cooling demand will be twice the electricity demand associated with EV charging or AI data centres.
The findings come as cooling features in discussions around COP31, including the Third Annual Cooling Ministerial on November 16. The Global Cooling Pledge, launched by COP28 in 2023, calls for cooling-related emissions to fall by at least 68% from 2022 levels by 2050 while expanding access to sustainable cooling.
DNV’s research predicts that CO₂ emissions from electricity used for space cooling will fall by around 40% from 2022 levels towards mid-century. While the figures have different emissions boundaries, the Global Cooling Pledge also includes HFCs; DNV’s forecast highlights the scale of the challenge as cooling demand offsets some of the benefits of grid decarbonisation.
Fastest growth in emerging economies
DNV forecasts that global cooling electricity demand, currently around 2,800TWh, will increase by 80% by 2040, compared with 55% growth over the previous 15 years.
Growth is heavily concentrated in emerging economies. Cooling demand is expected to triple in the Indian Subcontinent and quadruple in Southeast Asia over the next 15 years. North American demand, by contrast, increases by just over 5%, with data centre cooling accounting for much of the additional load.
Additionally, DNV’s analysis found contrasting emissions trajectories. In North America, comparatively limited demand growth and electricity decarbonisation drive cooling-related emissions down. In Southeast Asia, rapidly expanding access to air-conditioning initially increases emissions despite a greener electricity mix, before emissions decline as power generation decarbonises further.
Efficiency will be critical
DNV’s analysis finds rising incomes to be the largest driver of additional cooling-energy demand between 2025 and 2040, while improvements in cooling equipment and controls offset only a small proportion of the increase.
The Global Cooling Pledge includes an ambition to increase the global average efficiency of new air conditioners by 50% by 2030 compared with a 2022 installed baseline. DNV’s analysis indicates that translating such ambitions into equipment standards and improving access to efficient cooling will be important, particularly in countries experiencing the fastest demand growth
