The UK government is facing growing pressure to maintain its Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate, with new polling indicating majority support among Labour MPs for the planned 2030 phase-out of new petrol and diesel car sales. At the same time, representatives from the charging, fleet, investment and EV sectors have warned that changes to the framework could affect billions of pounds of investment across the automotive and infrastructure supply chain.
Polling commissioned by the Climate Barometer Tracker and conducted by Savanta found that 54% of Labour MPs support phasing out petrol and diesel vehicle sales by 2030, compared with 17% who oppose the target. Across all MPs, 44% support the phase-out while 32% are opposed.
The findings coincide with reports that the government is preparing a consultation on relaxing the ZEV Mandate, potentially including changes to the treatment of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The current mandate requires 33% of new cars sold in 2026 to be pure electric, rising to 80% by 2030. Pure petrol and diesel car sales are due to end in 2030, while hybrid vehicles can remain on sale until 2035.
One option reportedly under consideration would reduce the 2030 requirement to as low as 50%, alongside greater flexibility for manufacturers to meet their targets.
More than 40 organisations from the charging sector, business fleets, battery manufacturing, investment and environmental groups have backed maintaining the existing framework. In a letter to Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander, the organisations warned that changing the rules, “potentially undermines billions of pounds of committed investment in the automotive sector, chargepoint sector, business fleets and battery manufacturing and recycling”.
The investment implications are a particular concern for charging infrastructure. The sector has expanded alongside expectations of sustained EV growth, with policy certainty providing a basis for infrastructure deployment and capital investment.
James Alexander, CEO of UK Sustainable Investment and Finance Association, said: “The Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate is an absolutely vital mechanism for driving investment into the UK’s electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. It has given the market the confidence to support the roll-out of charging points across the country, which are helping to electrify our transport system.
“Watering down the mandate risks undermining this flow of capital, just as increasing numbers of motorists are turning to cheaper EVs. The government must maintain the existing targets in this framework, so investors have the long-term policy certainty they need to continue financing this crucial sector.”
Charging operator InstaVolt similarly linked infrastructure investment to long-term policy signals. “Ultra-rapid charging investment doesn’t happen on the back of uncertainty,” says CEO Delvin Lane. “We’ve invested hundreds of millions of pounds into the UK’s charging network because government policy gave us a clear runway to plan against. Softening the mandate at this stage risks spooking exactly the private capital that’s been building the infrastructure this transition depends on.
“Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of drivers are choosing to go electric. The numbers back this up: BEVs made up 27% of new car registrations in July, up 49% year-on-year, and staying above the ZEV Mandate trajectory for a second month running. OEMs need to recognise that this demand is real and seize it, or risk watching competitors take the opportunity they’re hesitating over.”
The latest figures cited by the industry indicate that battery electric vehicles accounted for 27% of new registrations in July, with registrations increasing 49% year-on-year. The ZEV Mandate has also incorporated compliance flexibilities, which campaigners say have enabled the automotive industry to meet its obligations since the framework came into force in January 2024.
For fleet operators, the transition is already requiring substantial investment in vehicles and charging infrastructure. Openreach said it has more than 7,000 EVs in operation and more than 4,000 charging points.
“We’re already electrifying the UK’s second largest commercial fleet – with more than 7,000 EVs on the road and over 4,000 charging points in place. This is a long-term commitment and we’re continuing to invest as we work towards our targets,” said Abby Chicken, the company’s head of sustainability.
“And while we’ve made good progress, there’s more to do. Keeping that momentum going will be important. Clear, consistent Government policy can help businesses keep investing, alongside support to tackle challenges like vehicle availability, upfront costs and reliable charging.”
The potential role of PHEVs is another significant issue for the consultation. Department for Transport data cited in the industry response indicates that around one in five PHEV owners has no means of charging at home. European Commission research has also found that PHEVs can produce 3.5 times more CO2 in real-world driving than official test figures, largely because they are not charged and operated electrically as frequently as assumed.
SMMT data cited in the release recorded 23,359 PHEVs registered in July, representing 14.9% of the total market.
Andy Palmer, chair of Electric Vehicles UK, elaborated: “Plug-in hybrids are transition technology. The destination remains BEV, with efficient REEVs playing a useful role along the way. The key is plugging into cheap-rate electricity wherever possible – overnight at home, at work or on the street. That means getting the infrastructure right, and educating the consumer at the point of sale. And if hybrids are still needed beyond 2035, they should be efficient REEVs, designed to run primarily on electricity rather than petrol cars carrying a token battery.”
The charging requirements of PHEVs were also highlighted by Voltempo CEO Simon Smith: “Plug-in hybrids only work if people plug them in. That means convenient, affordable charging where cars actually park – but infrastructure alone isn’t enough. We also need proper driver education so people understand when, where and how to charge to get the best from the technology. If PHEVs are part of the transition, we need to make sure they’re being used as intended.”
From an engineering perspective, the debate therefore extends beyond vehicle sales targets to the development of charging infrastructure, vehicle platforms, battery supply chains and fleet operating models. The Climate Barometer polling found particularly strong cross-party support for increased charging infrastructure investment, with 87% of MPs and 90% of Labour MPs supporting greater investment.
Colin Walker, Head of Transport at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, explained: “The ZEV mandate is doing exactly what it was designed to do: driving competition between manufacturers, bringing down the cost of new EVs, growing the second-hand market, and helping more and more drivers end their exposure to expensive petrol prices by making the shift to electric driving. Despite calls from parts of the industry for the Government to weaken its EV sales target, the majority of MPs recognise that sticking to the 2030 phase-out is necessary if the savings that come from EV ownership are to be accessible for all British households.”
For manufacturers and their engineering supply chains, any alteration to the mandate could therefore influence product planning, powertrain development and investment decisions. For charging operators and infrastructure suppliers, it could similarly affect deployment forecasts and investment cases.
According to Gurjeet Grewal, CEO of Octopus Electric Vehicles, “The ZEV mandate is working. It’s giving manufacturers the confidence to invest and drivers the confidence to switch. We’ve seen strong global investment in the UK because manufacturers see a market with clear policy direction. Weakening the mandate now would send exactly the wrong signal to businesses looking to create jobs and invest here.
“EVs are increasingly the best-value cars on the road and sales continue to grow at a remarkable pace. The last thing we need is another policy wobble that confuses consumers and puts investors off just as the transition is accelerating.”
The forthcoming consultation will therefore be significant for the wider automotive engineering ecosystem, as government decisions on ZEV targets and PHEVs could shape the pace and direction of UK investment in electric mobility through the remainder of the decade.
